The hottest nonferrous metals experienced a crazy

Nonferrous Metals experienced a crazy day and night: big inflection point or blowing foam

on the same day, the domestic futures market bull carnival, black futures, non-ferrous futures rose sharply, Shanghai zinc limit, Shanghai lead rose 5.11%, ferrosilicon rose 4%, Shanghai nickel rose 3.33%. In the A-share market, the non-ferrous metal sector also ranked among the top three in the industry with an increase of 1.83%, while zinc and lead stocks increased significantly. The industry believes that the sharp rise in nonferrous metals on the 17th is a continuation of the sharp rise in metal prices in the overseas market the previous night, mainly driven by funds

in the face of the hot market, some researchers believe that this is a sign of the big turning point of nonferrous metals or the arrival of the bottom of the cycle, while other analysts hold a cautious view

the news behind the "rising voice" is chaotic

this bull feast actually started the night before yesterday. That night, LME zinc closed up 5.5% to $3119/ton, the largest one-day increase in nearly a year, and continued to refresh its 10-year high. LME copper closed up 2.4% to $6532/ton, a new high in recent three years. In domestic night trading, Shanghai zinc rose by the limit, and Shanghai small force value was generally 1. Nickel, Shanghai lead, Shanghai copper and Shanghai aluminum were all red with S-type sensors. Coupled with the release of the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting, the dollar continued to be under pressure, making the market further bullish on base metals

sure enough, during the day of the 17th, non-ferrous varieties continued to be popular in the current, future and stock markets

behind the rise, a large number of positive news also spread in the market: some overseas investment banks attributed it to the positive global macroeconomic data, strong demand in China, etc; In the domestic market, the environmental storm caused the decline of zinc production, Shanxi environmental protection inspection caused the shutdown of bauxite, and the fourth batch of central environmental protection supervision group focused on monitoring the non-ferrous industry after its entry

in this regard, Antaike lead zinc industry experts said on the 17th that after the previous round of environmental protection integration (2011-2012), the domestic zinc mine capacity has decreased significantly, and the release of new capacity is not as expected. In addition, this year's environmental protection supervision is stronger than expected, the increment of zinc is not as expected, and the annual output may even decline. In this way, the supply gap will expand. Considering that the impact of environmental protection will continue and the release of new capacity will be slow, the gap may not be filled until 2019

big inflection point of cycle or short-term foam blowing

there is a gap in supply, and the price will rise. This logic has been recognized by most market people at present

however, the differences between the parties lie in: is nonferrous metals really in a good situation, the inflection point has arrived, or is it a short-term foam blown up by excessive enthusiasm

analysts have their own opinions on this. The researcher of Anxin Securities believes that it has stood at the big turning point of nonferrous metals. Nonferrous varieties are good in the medium and long term, but different varieties have different levels of supply and demand tension, and guide customers to comply with China's inspection and quarantine laws and regulations at the same time, resulting in different ranges of price increases

nonferrous researchers at Everbright Securities believe that nonferrous metals are in a weak balance between supply and demand, and are at the bottom of the cycle

researcher Guotai Junan continues to be optimistic about electrolytic aluminum, carbon, lead and zinc, rare earth and other production enterprises

in the view of Wang Jiaxing, a non-ferrous metals analyst in Shanghai, lead and zinc are greatly affected by fundamentals, aluminum rises under the influence of supply side reform and environmental protection production restriction news, and other varieties follow up in the bullish atmosphere of capital and market. Speculation ▌ 3. Environmental pollution is too heavy to return, and enthusiasm is high

"we believe that different varieties cannot be generalized, and we should pay more attention to the changes in the supply side." Ye Jianhua, a senior analyst of Shanghai Nonferrous copper, told Shanghai Securities News that what are the daily maintenance and performance characteristics of high and low temperature testing machines? As a variety with high investment attributes, copper is indeed more in the medium term against the background of the gradual contraction of the supply side and the continuous decline from 2011 to 2016. However, it is quite interesting that in the past, copper prices took the lead, but in this round of nonferrous metal market, copper prices lagged behind

liuxiaolei, a senior analyst of Shanghai Nonferrous aluminum, believes that the inflection point has already appeared, and many metals have bottomed out in 2016. At present, the so-called inflection point is more of the nature of inflection point in the middle and late stage. "From the perspective of supply and new capacity, the supply of aluminum does show signs of contraction, but it can not completely reverse the surplus situation, especially the recent sharp rise in inventory, and it is not recommended to catch up with more in operation." Liu Xiaolei told Shanghai Securities News