The hottest non-ferrous metal sector has turned an

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The non-ferrous metal sector has turned and is expected to turn to the oscillatory rising pattern

Abstract: industry insiders said that under the background of supply side reform, driven by the consumption demand of the domestic market, represented by the "Dr. copper" who came out of the bottom of the price in November and rose against the trend, the non-ferrous metal sector has turned and is expected to turn to the oscillatory rising pattern next year

investors should seize the opportunities of medium and short-term hedging and arbitrage

on December 20, the "2017 bulk commodity F. test space: Test width of about 400 mm (Standard Specification). Investment outlook and Trading Strategy Summit exchange", hosted by Shanghai adjustment and optimization industrial structure futures exchange and CITIC futures, was held in Shenzhen. Insiders said that under the background of supply side reform, driven by consumer demand in the domestic market, Represented by the "Dr. copper" who came out of the bottom of the price of home appliance shells in November and rose against the trend, the momentum of the non-ferrous metal sector has turned, and it is expected to turn to the pattern of oscillation and rise next year. However, due to the large number of potential risk events in the world, investors should focus more on medium - and short-term hedging and arbitrage opportunities

"since 2011, the copper price has fallen for five consecutive years, from a high of $10000/ton to the lowest point of $4318/ton in early November this year. After trump was elected president of the United States, the copper price broke through the long-term trend line and rose rapidly by 25%, which means that the bear market may come to an end." Zhou Feng, vice president of Minmetals Research Institute, said that in the past, the focus of the market in the bear market was the supply side cost. The rapid rise in copper prices in November exceeded expectations, mainly because the demand side has changed. Judging from the disk situation, the long-term trend operators have begun to operate in the opposite direction. Since 2012, many long-term trend operators have sold copper at high prices. This time, they closed their positions and left the market, and some people turned into bulls. The entry of short-term participants and long selling are also rapidly pushing up the copper price. Traders and downstream users began to replenish inventory. The superposition of various factors made the copper price show obvious signs of turning

according to futures, at present, domestic copper consumption accounts for more than 40% of the global total. From January to October this year, domestic copper consumption increased by 2.2% year-on-year. Zhou Feng said that the main reasons for the growth include strong infrastructure construction, investment in the real estate industry, the early completion of destocking in the household appliance industry and the rapid growth of electricity investment

"in 2016, all base metals have reached the key cost position. From the supply side, the price of base metals has bottomed out. Copper is no exception. The current market inventory is low, and the copper market is a value depression." Zhou Feng predicted that the bottom of copper price would move up in 2017, and the average price would be slightly higher than the $4900/ton in 2016, returning to the range of $5300-5400/ton. The long-term trend of copper price is changing, and the market will maintain a wide-ranging oscillation pattern. It is not ruled out that it is possible to break through $6500/ton upward, but it is difficult to fall below $5000/ton downward

looking forward to 2017, Zhou Feng said that the peak supply of copper has passed, there are still few mining projects to be developed, and the year-on-year growth rate of global refined copper consumption demand remains at 2%. Most importantly, market sentiment has improved significantly. With the strong U.S. economy and the bottoming out of China's economic growth, bulk commodities and the U.S. dollar may strengthen simultaneously

Liu Jiang, fund manager of Shenzhen Thanksgiving Investment Management Co., Ltd., agreed with the view that bulk commodities and the US dollar may strengthen simultaneously. He said that for a long time, the copper price has remained weak. When the copper price broke through the low point on November 7, the RMB was close to breaking the low point on the same day. Judging from the market in the last two months of 2016, the price of Shanghai copper is rarely in line with the trend of the US dollar index. In 2017, we should pay close attention to the impact of RMB and US dollar on commodity prices

Liu Jiang said that at present, the non-ferrous metal sector as a whole shows a rebound pattern, and it is reasonable to choose long opportunities in 2017. At the same time, the differentiation of commodity attributes and financial attributes brings opportunities for hedging and arbitrage among varieties

it is worth mentioning that many participants believed that global international political changes may become the biggest risk point of commodity investment in 2017. Zhou Feng said that the international political landscape is unpredictable and there are many macroeconomic uncertainties. The tension in 2017 may be the most serious year after the end of the cold war. There may be more "black swan" events in 2017, such as how Trump's new deal will be implemented, how the French election results will be, whether Germany's big experimental equipment requires a change in the refugee policy after the election, and whether Italy will withdraw from the euro zone

Liu Jiang also believes that in 2017, the global economic recovery was slow, China's economy forged ahead, and the world regional crisis still exists. The "black swan" event at the macro level may mainly come from the eurozone

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